1pm – Sunday, February 14th, 2021
Storm update... Winter Storm Warning Through Early Tuesday
First thing I want to do is give you a graphical
representation of expected snow/sleet/ice precip now through 6am Tuesday
morning. Hopefully, this will help you see what I will be describing below.
Obviously, blue is snow with pink being sleet and the purple being freezing
Based on the anticipated track and other factors, I'm still
holding onto the same idea from yesterday, which is heaviest snows along a
line and just northwest of the line from around Bowling Green to around
Lexington. This means the I-65 corridor is among the area with the
potential for the highest snow totals through Tuesday. Just on the southeast
of that line, sleet could be significant and will diminish snow accumulation
We need to note a couple of things here. There is still the
expectation of two main "surges" in precipitation. The first will likely
result a swath of sleet in the transition area of the snow/sleet line above.
The second surge Monday afternoon and Monday evening will have a path
slightly east of the first surge, resulting in a snowpack above the sleet.
Temps will be coldest on Tuesday night. Current guidance is in the lower
teens, but with a snow pack, we will be colder likely closer to 0 for some
of the area. This is problematic for clearing roads over the next few days
and also may be a factor later in the week as we talk about a potential snow
system Wednesday late into Thursday with rain on the back side and the
potential for flooding over an ice pack and frozen ground.
With regard to road crews (fyi for those of you on this post
not in the KYTC ranks), this event will likely come with very heavy snow
rates late Monday. Crews will be plowing and shortly afterwards, snow will
re-accumulate. In this scenario, crews will have to continually work "A" and
Emergency routes (larger volume roads like I65, 31W, 31E, US 68, US 62, US
60, Bluegrass Parkway, Western Kentucky Parkway just to name a few) until
the precip rates allow them to move to other roads. Lower priority routes
will likely receive significant precip before plowing and treatment. Tuesday
should provide working opportunity after precip ends early in the morning to
plow and treat with some solar action helping to cut through roads before
the frigid temps of Tuesday night. We also have decent residual salt on many
roads which will help.
By this evening, we
will be focus on radar and nowcasting. Quick updates will be coming
throughout the life of this system.
While we feel more confident in the forecast, remember along these breakout
lines from snow to sleet, especially, the forecast amounts I'm about to show
you from NWS could change considerably. There is a lot of moisture to work
with here but the snow to liquid ratio versus the sleet to liquid ratios are
very different. Accumulation amounts will trade off near that snow/sleet
boundary with high snow totals right along and northeast of that line and
impressive sleet totals (but not as many inches as snow) on the southeast
side of that line. This is indicated by the black dotted lines on the below
map. Here is the NWS Louisville summary:
There's the latest. Updates to come.