Chris Jessie's

     Weather Wrap...




8am Monday, February 15th, 2021

Quick Storm update...

As expected overnight, winter precip from the southwest started creating problems in our district around or just before midnight... Sleet and freezing rain on the southeast side and snow on the northwest side.

Nearly all roads are covered (at least partially).  Crews plowed and treated and now we are in the "lull" between waves of preip.  Looking for mid/late morning for the next wave. Here is the 9am-midnight simulated radar for the bulk of what's ahead for us.  Keep an eye on that blue/pink line with the bright purple spots.  The bright purple is very intense snow. If you hear a clap of thunder, don't be surprised.  Thundersnow is a possibility in extremely heavy rates.



And, here is the NWS thought for total snow accumulation through Tuesday morning.


Updates will be posted.









1pm Sunday, February 14th, 2021

Storm update... Winter Storm Warning Through Early Tuesday


First thing I want to do is give you a graphical representation of expected snow/sleet/ice precip now through 6am Tuesday morning. Hopefully, this will help you see what I will be describing below. Obviously, blue is snow with pink being sleet and the purple being freezing rain.


Based on the anticipated track and other factors, I'm still holding onto the same idea from yesterday, which is heaviest snows along a line and just northwest of the line from around Bowling Green to around Lexington.  This means the I-65 corridor is among the area with the potential for the highest snow totals through Tuesday. Just on the southeast of that line, sleet could be significant and will diminish snow accumulation potential.


We need to note a couple of things here. There is still the expectation of two main "surges" in precipitation.  The first will likely result a swath of sleet in the transition area of the snow/sleet line above. The second surge Monday afternoon and Monday evening will have a path slightly east of the first surge, resulting in a snowpack above the sleet.  Temps will be coldest on Tuesday night.  Current guidance is in the lower teens, but with a snow pack, we will be colder likely closer to 0 for some of the area.  This is problematic for clearing roads over the next few days and also may be a factor later in the week as we talk about a potential snow system Wednesday late into Thursday with rain on the back side and the potential for flooding over an ice pack and frozen ground.


With regard to road crews (fyi for those of you on this post not in the KYTC ranks), this event will likely come with very heavy snow rates late Monday. Crews will be plowing and shortly afterwards, snow will re-accumulate. In this scenario, crews will have to continually work "A" and Emergency routes (larger volume roads like I65, 31W, 31E, US 68, US 62, US 60, Bluegrass Parkway, Western Kentucky Parkway just to name a few) until the precip rates allow them to move to other roads. Lower priority routes will likely receive significant precip before plowing and treatment. Tuesday should provide working opportunity after precip ends early in the morning to plow and treat with some solar action helping to cut through roads before the frigid temps of Tuesday night. We also have decent residual salt on many roads which will help.

By this evening, we will be focus on radar and nowcasting.  Quick updates will be coming throughout the life of this system.

While we feel more confident in the forecast, remember along these breakout lines from snow to sleet, especially, the forecast amounts I'm about to show you from NWS could change considerably.  There is a lot of moisture to work with here but the snow to liquid ratio versus the sleet to liquid ratios are very different. Accumulation amounts will trade off near that snow/sleet boundary with high snow totals right along and northeast of that line and impressive sleet totals (but not as many inches as snow) on the southeast side of that line. This is indicated by the black dotted lines on the below map.   Here is the NWS Louisville summary:




There's the latest.  Updates to come.